Long Bets - Gaming Edition


#1

So this was the question posed on Episode 86 regarding my Year 2020 predictions.

The basis for it came from a website (now defunct) called Long Bets. Essentially, it was a group of people that would make long term claims (with support) that people could refute. To make things interesting, you would donate money to the other person’s charity of choice if you lost. They range from sports, to business, to science, to end of the world predictions - good stuff if you are interested.

But I was thinking about that in terms of gaming - things that we come to assume will happen about the longer term nature of the gaming industry. I put together a list of 28 things that hopefully make you contemplate for more than a second.

Do you believe the following will be announced / released by the end of 2020?

  1. First Person Halo game without Master Chief – specifically called “HALO” in some fashion
  2. A Non-Horizon / Non-Motorsport Forza game
  3. Destiny 3
  4. Telltale Walking Dead Game – not a Clementine story
  5. Minecraft 2
  6. A traditional Fable RPG
  7. 4 New Assassin’s Creed Games (Origins, 2018, 2019, 2020)
  8. A “Modern Warfare” era Call Of Duty
  9. A Call of Duty set before WW1
  10. Far Cry 6
  11. Final Fantasy VII Remake – Part 1
  12. Final Fantasy VII Remake – Part 2
  13. Final Fantasy VII Remake – Part 3
  14. Grand Theft Auto 6
  15. Elder Scrolls 6
  16. Fallout 5
  17. A New Mass Effect Game
  18. Left 4 Dead 3
  19. Dead Rising 5
  20. Batman Arkham Type Game
  21. Resident Evil 8
  22. Final Fantasy 16
  23. Witcher 4
  24. Overwatch 2
  25. Titanfall 3
  26. Mario or Link on Xbox
  27. More Than 100 ACA NEOGEO titles (currently 28 on Xbox - 55 on PS4 - 148 exist)
  28. Kingdom Hearts 3 and South Park: The Fractured But Whole

#2
  1. First Person Halo game without Master Chief – specifically called “HALO” in some fashion
    - Interesting because Agent Locke was received so poorly, but ODST and Reach are thought of relatively fondly. I personally think Master Chief is over done, but I understand the importance of the character.
    Prediction: Announced, not released
  2. A Non-Horizon / Non-Motorsport Forza game
    - I think the level of quality in these titles has reached a point where there is little Playground and Turn 10 can do to innovate that would continue to grow the brand. While Forza Horizon 3 seemingly did that - Forza Motorsport 7 seems to be banking on graphical improvements. Both games are amazing feats, but I fear that brand fatigue may set in with this yearly release cycle and Microsoft will push to have a Forza game take a chance one year.
    Prediction: Released
  3. Destiny 3
    - This was interesting given the growing notion of “Games As A Service”. If done correctly, Destiny 2 could establish a platform to iterate on like World Of Warcraft or similar experiences, but could also be refreshed each iteration for that big payday that comes with a new game like Destiny 3 could be. Destiny 1 lasted 3 years (2014-2017) and I think Destiny 3 would follow suit.
    Prediction: Released
  4. Telltale Walking Dead Game – not a Clementine story
    - As mentioned on the show, Telltale is ending the Clementine story arch with the next iteration of The Walking Dead. Also mentioned was the Michonne and 400 Days pieces of content that already exist outside of the Clementine story arch. But given the onslaught of new IP and releases, will Telltale move on from that world? This is a tough one for me to answer, because I think the Walking Dead universe is very overplayed and I’m nervous that brand fatigue has set in, but it continues to be referenced as some of the best Telltale content (likely because it was really the first to be impactful).
    Prediction: No, Telltale will abandon the IP.
  5. Minecraft 2
    - So quickly dismissed on the podcast for some very good reasons, but how can Microsoft make a lot of money - by making a sequel to the most popular game of all time. Not saying it would be a good idea, but can you continue to rely on the newer generation of kids buying this game when the idea of 50+ million people moving to a Minecraft 2 could be possible? I don’t know how much money skin packs and merch are contributing to this, but I have to imagine that software sales are declining.
    Prediction: No, Minecraft is a stand alone thing.
  6. A traditional Fable RPG
    - So many fond memories of playing Fable 2 and 3 (to a less extent). Of course Lionhead is gone, but would Microsoft really sit on this IP without considering a reboot?
    Prediction: Announced
  7. 4 New Assassin’s Creed Games (Origins, 2018, 2019, 2020)
    - Yes, Ubisoft took a year off. Does this mean it will be a normal thing? I don’t necessarily think so. I think Origins will be successful and I think Ubisoft is poised to make a run at the annualization again.
    Prediction: Released.
  8. A “Modern Warfare” era Call Of Duty
    - Pending
  9. A Call of Duty set before WW1
    - Pending
  10. Far Cry 6
    - Pending
  11. Final Fantasy VII Remake – Part 1
    - Pending
  12. Final Fantasy VII Remake – Part 2
    - Pending
  13. Final Fantasy VII Remake – Part 3
    - Pending
  14. Grand Theft Auto 6
    - Pending
  15. Elder Scrolls 6
    - Pending
  16. Fallout 5
    - Pending
  17. A New Mass Effect Game
    - Pending
  18. Left 4 Dead 3
    - Pending
  19. Dead Rising 5
    - Pending
  20. Batman Arkham Type Game
    - Pending
  21. Resident Evil 8
    - Pending
  22. Final Fantasy 16
    - Pending
  23. Witcher 4
    - Pending
  24. Overwatch 2
    - Pending
  25. Titanfall 3
    - Pending
  26. Mario or Link on Xbox
    - Pending
  27. More Than 100 ACA NEOGEO titles (currently 28 on Xbox - 55 on PS4 - 148 exist)
    - Pending
  28. Kingdom Hearts 3 and South Park: The Fractured But Whole
    • Okay, these are jokes, but really - are we convinced they will actually come out in 2017 like we’ve been told.
      Prediction: Yes, they will be released before 2020 (now, do I think 2017 - well, I’m not convinced on that).